Electoral calculus

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Electoral calculus

Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It considers national factors and local demographics. The site was developed by Martin Baxter, [1] who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling. The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. It has separate sections for elections in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Change UK was later removed from the headline prediction ahead of the general election as their poll scores were not statistically significant. The site is based around the employment of scientific techniques on data about the United Kingdom's electoral geography, [1] which can be used to calculate the uniform national swing. The calculations were initially based on what is termed the Transition Model , which is derived from the additive uniform national swing model. This uses national swings in a proportional manner to predict local effects. Across the eight general elections from to [8]. It was listed by The Guardian in as one of the " most useful websites", being "the best" for predictions. John Rentoul in The Independent referred to the site after the election. The founder of Electoral Calculus, Martin Baxter, and its sole employee, Marwan Riach, have regularly appeared on UK and international media to offer polling expertise to their audience. Contents move to sidebar hide.

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Get the data on GitHub. The U. In the last year, state legislatures have passed numerous new election laws , abortion restrictions , anti-transgender laws and more. But according to our analysis of state-legislative redistricting using the same tools we use to analyze congressional redistricting on our redistricting tracker , as well as conversations with experts in state-legislative elections, the legislatures in even many battleground states have been drawn to give one party a clear advantage. That is not a new development, but we also found that redistricting changed the electoral calculus in several battleground states: Some legislative chambers got more competitive, while other previously contested chambers got sewn up for one party. So join us for an all-expenses-paid tour through all the state capitols you might rightly or wrongly expect to be up for grabs this decade. First up: a trio of swing states whose legislatures have nonetheless been safely Republican for years — and figure to remain so for the foreseeable future. Georgia is perhaps the most egregious example.

Electoral calculus

Read the headline prediction, and also see the full details about which seats would be won and lost if there were a general election tomorrow. Our current headline prediction for what would happen if there were a UK General Election tomorrow. Make your own predictions both for the entire country and for any particular Westminster constituency in England, Scotland and Wales.

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You can change your cookie settings at any time. Cookies on Companies House services We use some essential cookies to make our services work. It considers national factors and local demographics. Accept analytics cookies Reject analytics cookies View cookies. The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. Hide this message. You've rejected analytics cookies. To accept or reject analytics cookies, turn on JavaScript in your browser settings and reload this page. We use cookies to make our services work and collect analytics information. British political forecasting web site. The calculations were initially based on what is termed the Transition Model , which is derived from the additive uniform national swing model. Across the eight general elections from to [8]. Retrieved 17 October Follow this company File for this company.

Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results.

Politics in Spires. The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. Skip to main content. Archived from the original on 21 September Last accounts made up to 31 May He attempts to apply scientific techniques to the electoral geography of Britain to predict the future general election results. Electoral Calculus. The site was developed by Martin Baxter, [1] who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling. Change UK was later removed from the headline prediction ahead of the general election as their poll scores were not statistically significant. Article Talk.