Polar vortex 2023 canada

As discussed in our latest article, strong pressure anomalies are underway in the stratospheric Polar Vortex. This weekend, the Arctic cold pool will intensify over the northern U. Winter weather with snow is forecast to grip central North America into freezing cold in the coming days, polar vortex 2023 canada. The Arctic cold pool gradually strengthened over Canada early this week and has now spread into the northern States.

It has been a very mild start to the winter season as records were broken for above-normal temperatures during the month. But the United States and Canada are about to see a visit from the polar vortex for the first time this season, promising to bring a very dramatic shift downward in temperatures that will feel even more harsh than it otherwise would. If the polar vortex has not been active in North America this winter, then where has it been? As is typical during December during El Nino, the polar air has been where it should be -- around the North Pole, or as was the case for much of December and early January, displaced in northern Russia. Those of us in the U.

Polar vortex 2023 canada

But what is the polar vortex, and why should we care about its formation and potential collapse? In simple terms, the polar vortex is a large area of low-pressure and cold air that surrounds the poles. It always exists, but it becomes stronger and more defined during the winter months. The stratosphere, where this vortex exists, is located above the troposphere, which is where our day-to-day weather occurs. The vortex typically keeps the coldest air near the poles, acting somewhat like a refrigerator door that keeps the cold contained. However, sometimes the polar vortex can weaken or even collapse, allowing frigid arctic air to spill southward, impacting parts of the United States, Canada, and Europe. Historically, a collapsing or weakening polar vortex has led to intense and prolonged cold outbreaks. The impacts of these cold air intrusions can be severe, from crippling snowstorms to deadly cold temperatures. A few instances in recent memory:. In some areas, temperatures dropped to degrees below average. Such incidents lead to challenges, from transportation disruptions to health risks. Prolonged exposure to extreme cold can lead to frostbite, hypothermia, and even death. Furthermore, these extreme conditions strain energy resources as people turn up the heat and put pressure on infrastructures not designed for such cold. Oscillations or waves of warm air can occasionally push into the stratosphere, disrupting the normally circular flow of the vortex. When this happens, it can split into multiple smaller vortices or be displaced from the pole.

As discussed in our latest article, strong pressure anomalies are underway in the stratospheric Polar Vortex.

We threw plenty of information at you in our last post introducing the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex. The first thing you might notice is that the winds change direction in the late summer and spring. Or that the temperatures are colder in the winter than in the summer. Similar to the seasons we experience here on the ground, the stratosphere also has seasons. The seasonal cycle of polar vortex temperatures background maps and winds white arrows.

Eastern Canada has had a relatively easy winter so far, temperature-wise, but that's going to change in a hurry. The most potent lobe of the polar vortex will descend across Canada late this week, and its short-lived stay will pack a punch. It's been an incredibly mild stretch of weather across the country throughout January, but February will buck the trend in a big way. Early this week, the polar vortex is meandering across Hudson Bay, but some reinforcing shots of cold air will displace the polar vortex across Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. A clipper system moves through on Thursday along the dividing line of Arctic air. Behind the low, the cold air is free to surge south. We'll have to watch intense lake-effect bands off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron as the lakes remain ice-free.

Polar vortex 2023 canada

Eastern Canada has had a relatively easy winter so far, temperature-wise, but that's going to change in a hurry. The most potent lobe of the polar vortex will descend across Canada late this week, and its short-lived stay will pack a punch. It's been an incredibly mild stretch of weather across the country throughout January, but February will buck the trend in a big way. Early this week, the polar vortex is meandering across Hudson Bay, but some reinforcing shots of cold air will displace the polar vortex across Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. A ridge building into British Columbia will also amplify the pattern, and temperatures will fall to places they haven't been in years. A clipper system moves through on Thursday along the dividing line of Arctic air. Behind the low, the cold air is free to surge south.

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This was similar to the recent days the temperature was actually 28F or so. Past and forecast values of the MJO index. The Arctic cold pool gradually strengthened over Canada early this week and has now spread into the northern States. Longer range forecasting is difficult for human and model alike but this February was still a noteworthy for the flameout from the weather models. The cold front will be a significant change for parts of the country that have so far experienced a very mild winter, with meagre snowfall and above-average temperatures. Get ready to bundle up! They can also raise the temperature of the lower stratosphere which affects the polar vortex depending on the time of year. I used a different red-blue color scale and ocean mask to match the observations that we use. A growing concern? Also, I had ice on my roof. The polar vortex forms in late summer, when when the amount of sunlight reaching the pole begins to decrease. By standardizing the anomalies at each level, it's easier to compare the anomalies at each level in the context of their typical changes. Great to hear that you are enjoying it! Th e predicted pattern favors widespread normal to above normal temperatures across Southern Asia with normal to below normal possibly becoming more widespread across Northern Asia this period Figure 9.

Warm weather has dominated across Canada through most of the fall season.

This would mark the coldest January day in two decades for the city. But, from what you wrote just now, it sounds like it was not really a factor. Similar to the seasons we experience here on the ground, the stratosphere also has seasons. It has been a very mild start to the winter season as records were broken for above-normal temperatures during the month. I'll be using your graphics in my presentations, with dure credit, of course! The Arctic cold pool gradually strengthened over Canada early this week and has now spread into the northern States. Figure vi. The AO is predicted to be positive this week Figure 1 with mostly negative geopotential height anomalies across the Arctic and with mixed geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitudes of the NH Figure 2. Based on the Global Forecast System GFS model, that connection may last for a few more days before weakening as indicated by the forecasted low tropospheric thickness anomalies purple area that do not extend into the stratosphere. Standardized anomalies Permalink.