Betting odds australian referendum

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Some gamblers were surprised markets did not open once the 14 October date was set and the official campaigning began. Gambling companies have previously offered odds on state and federal elections , and some briefly opened books on the same-sex marriage plebiscite. No major company has so far opened bets on the referendum. Sportsbet, Betfair, Neds, Ladbrokes and Betr have confirmed they will not, but declined to comment when asked why. Some have suggested the referendum is too divisive and not something they want to be associated with. The companies and the peak body lobbying on their behalf, Responsible Wagering Australia, did not mention the industry was simultaneously lobbying the federal government ministers not to ban gambling ads and trailing commissions , as recommended by a parliamentary committee.

Betting odds australian referendum

Mr Waterhouse, who takes bets at Warwick Farm Racecourse in south-west Sydney , said it was extraordinary punters weren't interested in putting money on the Voice to Parliament referendum succeeding. Mainstream wagering companies have also shied away from taking bets on the Indigenous Voice proposal. While support for the Voice is still trending downwards in official polls with just two days until the referendum, the reality is many Australians are still undecided about whether they'll vote Yes or No. The BlueBet odds would rate the prospect of the Voice succeeding as a 17 per cent chance, making defeat an 83 per cent probability. Mr Waterhouse also predicted no state would end up supporting the Voice, which would be a repeat of the referendum when only the Australian Capital Territory voted Yes. The Voice would need to win not just the popular vote but also a majority of votes in four out of six states - with the territories excluded from this count. Tasmania was the only state where the Yes case was leading in Resolve and Roy Morgan polls taken in September and October. Only eight out of 44 referendum questions have succeeded since , with the last one carried in The republic referendum in only received 45 per cent support and UK polling firm Focaldata is predicting the Voice on Saturday would get just 39 per cent support, based on a survey of 4, Australians. A Labor government hasn't succeeded in amending the Constitution since , and that was to give the Commonwealth the power to provide social security instead of the states. In , Mr Trump narrowly triumphed in the electoral college, but not the popular vote, by winning rustbelt states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania that didn't normally vote Republican, after vowing to undo free trade deals. The views expressed in the contents above are those of our users and do not necessarily reflect the views of MailOnline.

The BlueBet odds would rate the prospect of the Voice succeeding as a 17 per cent chance, making defeat an 83 per cent probability. For more information, see our Cookies Policy. NBA Matches.

In fact, politics markets can trace their history back to the pre-digital age to a period long before the inception of online bookmakers. Staking on UK, US, Australian elections and national votes from all over the world has been in place for decades and the online options have simply stepped in to provide a greater choice. The United Kingdom, the United States and Australia still dominate the political betting landscape to an extent and there tends to be more interest whenever these national polls are announced. In the US, a presidential election will take place every four years while, in the UK, the situation is more fluid. In Australia, the Federal Election is generally held every three years but there are exceptions. Bettors in Australia may look to focus on these areas but there is much more to consider.

What a poll of the national opinion polls on the Indigenous voice to parliament tells us — and how support or opposition in Australia is changing over time. The voice to parliament vote will be the first referendum in Australia since , with Australians asked to vote on the following question:. This first chart records the outcomes of opinion polls on the voice and averages the support over time to track the progress of the yes and no campaigns. You can read more about the methods below, but it is worth also keeping in mind that in addition to the uncertainty involved in polling due to sample sizes, there are a number of other factors that make measuring the polls even more difficult. One of the unique features of a constitutional referendum is the requirement for a double majority — that is, to succeed it requires a majority of voters to vote yes nationally, and it requires a majority in a majority of states, so four out of the six states must have a majority yes vote. This presents another difficulty in tracking the likelihood of success of the voice via polling, as few national polls so far have surveyed enough people to get a decently sized sample of voters from all of the six states, with South Australia, Western Australia and Tasmania in particular having low numbers. The latter will of course have a higher percentage value for the yes percentage.

Betting odds australian referendum

Some gamblers were surprised markets did not open once the 14 October date was set and the official campaigning began. Gambling companies have previously offered odds on state and federal elections , and some briefly opened books on the same-sex marriage plebiscite. No major company has so far opened bets on the referendum. Sportsbet, Betfair, Neds, Ladbrokes and Betr have confirmed they will not, but declined to comment when asked why. Some have suggested the referendum is too divisive and not something they want to be associated with.

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